An Arab-Style
‘Cambodian Spring’
Could be Disastrous
The Cambodia Daily
- August 19, 2013
Following
the recent election results, a new concept is starting to bloom: the Cambodian
Spring. Although filled with optimism, the idea of transposing the Arab Spring
to Cambodia should be taken with a pinch of salt.
In
December 2010, “flowers” blossomed in the harsh Mediterranean sun of Tunisia then Egypt
followed by Bahrain, Yemen,
Libya, Syria and
many Arab countries soon after. Arabs followed the mesmerizing songs of change
and democracy trusting they would soon lead to a better life. As curious as Pandora
opening a forbidden box bestowed by Zeus, the people expected democracy to
become a panacea for all their troubles. In the heat of the moment Mohamed
Bouazizi’s immolation kickstarted the revolution and everyone took to the
street.
French
political scientist Michel Dobry speaks of desectorialization in Egypt meaning
that workers of every sector converged their frustrations into a massive
protest movement. Like a B-rated Hollywood movie, the bad guy (the long
standing dictators) lost to the good guys played by Democracy. Happy endings
and let’s grab a beer anyone? As much as I wished this story to be true,
reality shows a much grimmer and more violent face.
Tunisia
has failed to recover from former President Ben
Ali’s fall and the political situation has been unstable
since. Unemployment rates have risen as the fragile state has been unable to
establish a solid economic structure. As a result, foreign investors are
reluctant to set foot in a country with a weak legal and political framework.
And Tunisia is probably the one country from the Arab uprisings with glimmers
of hope.
Egypt
initially placed its optimism in the figure of President Mohamed Morsi but he has failed
to negotiate a peace agreement with the military. To his own detriment,
one might say after the latter seized and imprisoned him. The inability to
create a stable political climate has many economical consequences. Vice
Minister of Finance Hary Kadri Dimian is still not able to broker a loan
agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Wheat reserve is at its lowest
point since importation has slowed considerably meaning Egypt could face
another food riot. Evaporating investments, scared tourists: A once attractive
country with its gold sands and mighty pyramids has become the scene of
gruesome showdowns.
Libya and
Syria? What can be said? One has become a haven
for radical Islamists looking to restore Shariah law while the other sees
President Bashar al-Assad sharpening his meat
cleavers every day. He might fall one day but chances are the butchering will
not stop there. Overzealous partisans of democracy like to put in the limelight
the inevitable democratic transitions whenever they see a glimpse of change.
But what follows is not always rainbows and butterflies.
The way we instill change can either mean: Establishing legitimate
democratic institutions recognized not only by the West but also the people and
its leaders. Or, destroying existing structures to establish newer, untested
ones.
Every government has its flaws but it is through constant
institutional confrontations, negotiations and eventual compromise that change
should be brought about. The nature of change whether it is through peace or
violence also dictates the nature of the outcome.
A Cambodian Spring—Arab style—could produce irreversible
consequences. Our country should not make another dreadful copy of a Western
song, especially one that sold so badly in Arab countries.
Samir
Pheng is a graduate student at Sciences Po Bordeaux.
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